Real-time modeling carried out by University College London (UCL) indicated the UK should be able to reach herd immunity by April 12, 2021.
“The herd immunity estimates surprised me. However, they are unremarkable when one considers that over 50 percent of adults have been vaccinated, around 42 percent of people have now been exposed to the virus and about 10 percent have pre-existing immunity,” explained UCL’s Professor Karl Friston.
Friston added that by preventing the virus from person to person, it will eventually die out.
Dr. Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine disputed the findings and said it was unrealistic.
“Unfortunately, the modeling approach used to produce this analysis has a history of making over-confident and over-optimistic predictions,” said Kucharski.
Kucharski warned that there could be more d inconsistencies uncertainties about vaccine effectiveness in reducing COVID-19 transmission.
Rowland Kao, a professor of veterinary epidemiology and data science at the University of Edinburgh, said there were other factors that need to be considered when attempting to model the herd immunity threshold such as age.